Yesterday, the market was originally in a normal technical correction phase, but due to Trump's statement, the market's existing adjustment rhythm was disrupted, leading to an earlier rebound, and forcing the completion of the correction cycle to be interrupted.
Although the news stimulus brought a short-term rise, it did not actually change the market structure. On the contrary, after the rhythm was disrupted, the struggle between bulls and bears will intensify, and the probability of significant market fluctuations will increase, potentially prolonging the adjustment time.
From a larger cycle perspective, weekly and monthly charts are still in a bottom rebound phase, and the medium to long-term repair logic remains unchanged; however, several cycles below the daily chart have re-entered high areas, and the upward space in the short term is beginning to be limited.
Since entering July, bulls have continued to take the initiative. Whether it's BTC or ETH, both have reached important pressure areas on the daily chart. Next, the market will face a genuine directional choice: will it break through the pressure to start a new round of rises, or will it complete a high-level pullback to wash out positions? This week will provide the answer.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Confirm support on pullbacks, position at lows, do not chase highs.
After completing a 2-hour level adjustment yesterday, BTC surged to $64,600 on news stimulation but then fell again and is currently in the process of seeking support again.
$64,000 remains the most important dividing line between bulls and bears, and it is the key position for whether the market can continue to strengthen in the short term.
Currently, it seems:
1-hour and 2-hour cycles are at high levels;
The 8-hour cycle is in a state of reduced volume surge;
Most cycles below the daily chart have entered high regions.
If the chips cannot be exchanged through pullbacks and rely solely on reduced volume rising to maintain the trend, sustainability is often limited.
Therefore, more attention should be paid to the strength of the support after the price pulls back. If it can stabilize with increased volume, there is still an opportunity for another push upward; if it breaks key support, caution is needed as multiple cycles may form a bear resonance, triggering a deeper technical adjustment.
Current operational strategy remains focused on waiting for pullback confirmation, then going long rather than blindly chasing prices. Rapid surges without volume support often struggle to go further.
Support to watch: 62055-62500
Pressure to watch: 64100, 64700, 65000
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This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to potential delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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