[Bernstein Research Report: AI Compute Expansion Will Drive Semiconductor Equipment Demand, Expenditure Exceeds Market Expectations]
Bernstein released a research report on July 20, 2026, stating that every additional 1GW of annualized compute power corresponds to $8 billion in equipment investment. If an average of 50GW compute power is added annually, global wafer equipment expenditure from 2027 to 2029 will exceed $700 billion, with an annualized scale approaching $300 billion. The current market estimates annual industry demand at only $120 billion to $150 billion. If compute infrastructure construction maintains a high-speed pace, leading equipment manufacturers' profits will surpass market expectations. Based on the 50GW scenario, the price-to-earnings ratio for Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA in 2028 is projected to fall to 15 to 18 times. Bernstein is optimistic about Applied Materials and has given an outperform rating to six companies, including Lam Research, KLA, and ASML, while Screen is rated as market perform.
