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Tonight at 22:00, live streaming will focus on macro fundamentals, on chain capital flows, and technological structures, objectively dissecting the current core trends and potential risk opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
The core characteristics of today's overall market are shrinking volume, solidifying structure, and waiting for direction.
The BTC quote is around 65400, and the overall daily box operation is maintained at 64500-65500. Recently, the market has shown a typical pattern of high-level contraction and consolidation. Despite multiple attempts to test upward pressure, the price has not been able to effectively break through, indicating concentrated selling pressure above and insufficient momentum for bulls to attack. At the same time, the support of the lower edge of the box has been repeatedly verified, and the momentum of the bearish phase is limited. The market as a whole has entered a trend observation stage.
The price of ETH is around 1935, and the structural differentiation of mainstream currencies continues. Compared to BTC's high resistance to decline, ETH's overall trend is weaker, with a flat medium to long term moving average and sustained contraction in short-term volume. The four hour level oscillation structure is becoming more compact. At present, the currency is completely priced according to macro and bearish sentiment, with no independent market drivers. The overall market is mainly driven by passive repair and range washing.
The reason why the current market has maintained long-term box oscillation is essentially due to the suppression of macro bearish sentiment and the formation of strong weak hedging by institutional funds, and the conditions for unilateral trend are not yet mature.
Market support dimension: The inflow trend of spot ETF funds continues, and there has been no reversal in the medium and long-term allocation behavior of institutions, with high levels continuing to receive market chips. The overall selling pressure in the secondary market has weakened, and market panic sentiment is running at a low level. The systemic downside risk of the market is closed, supporting the stability of the current bottom structure of the box.
1、 BTC's high-level contraction box continues to solidify, and signals of technical changes are gradually emerging. Should we prioritize breaking through the upward trend in the short term or confirm support through a retracement after breaking through?
2、 How to choose between long and short logic when macro easing expectations cool down and ETF funds support the bottom, and which side is the core pricing weight of the current market?
3、 The weak volatility pattern of ETH continues, and the differentiation between mainstream and altcoins intensifies. How to formulate a stable position layout and risk control strategy?
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
