CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that BTC has retreated by about 50% from its cycle high of $126200 in October 2025, and is likely to operate in the range of $57700 to $67000 in August. In a bearish scenario, BTC may test at $52800, while in a bullish scenario, it needs to stabilize at $67000 and coordinate with capital inflows, with a target of $71000 to $74000. At present, the cost area on the chain and the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs provide support, but the high interest rate, US treasury bond bond yield and the US dollar trend limit the upward space. The market needs to pay attention to the US non-agricultural employment, CPI, Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and other macro events.
